3 Big Takeaways Marketers Should Know About Magna's 2024 US Ad Forecast

Today, Magna released its latest U.S. Ad Forecast report, which paints a picture of what the current domestic ad market is in the country for the year. According to Magna, advertising revenues are expected to grow by more than 11.4% to $377 billion. Among the highlights, political advertising is boosting the bottom line, ad-funded streaming is on the rise, and digital pure players continue to dominate. Here are standout points and key findings from the report: Presidential election and Olympics will bring in $10 billion of incremental ad sales Three major cyclical events this year—the presidential election, the Summer Olympics, and the Copa America soccer tournament—are predicted to drive incremental ad sales. Political advertising will by far be the largest cyclical booster in even years, and it’s expected to reach new heights this year. Magna is projecting an 11% increase in political ad sales over the previous 2020 presidential cycle to generate $9 billion in incremental media owners’ revenues. Magna raised its political forecast as Democrat fundraising re-accelerated right after President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. Donations have since flooded into the Harris/Walz campaign, and total fundraising monitored by the FEC is once again above 2020 levels. A lot of ad spend will again concentrate on a small number of swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which will boost the ad sales of local TV stations and localized digital media. Meanwhile, the 2024 Paris Olympic Games came back strong following the Tokyo Games during the pandemic. This year’s event saw total cross-platform audience delivery up more than 82%. For the 17 days of the event, the Games boosted NBCUniversal ratings by more than 300% compared with the same period the previous year. Overall primetime TV among the 18-49-year-old demographic across all networks rose by 4%, reversing a year-to-date trend of -14% on the same demographic. Peacock contributed to strong viewing numbers and approximately 13% of total Olympic viewing. With strong ratings freeing up additional ad inventory, NBCUniversal's total ad sales grew by an estimated 20% vs. Tokyo to reach $1.5 billion, of which approximately $400 million was generated around digital and streaming properties and $1.1 billion for linear TV, including broadcast and cable networks growing 6%. According to Magna, more than 60% of these ad sales will prove net incremental to full-year national TV ad revenues. Ad-funded streaming TV will continue to grow Within traditional media owners, non-cyclical national television ad sales will drop 1.7% to $46 billion. For linear ad sales, broadcast and cable networks will fall by 6.8%, while streaming video sales will increase by 19.3% to $11 billion and account for nearly 25% of the total market.Non-political local TV sales are expected to drop 3.9% to $17.3 billion, though total ad revenue will grow by +25% when including political ad sales. Audio ad sales will rise 1% to $16 billion, as a 7% growth in audio streaming and podcasting will offset a decline of 3% in broadcast radio ad sales. Meanwhile, OOH ad revenues will increase by 5.3% to $9.7 billion. Digital pure players capture growth Digital pure players, including search, retail, social, and short-form video, are capturing most of the market growth, with non-cyclical advertising sales set to grow by more than 13.6% to $264 billion, a 72% market share. Moving forward, ad sales will stay strong in 2025, with non-cyclical ad spend growing 6.3% to $391 billion. Digital pure players will again drive the market, growing +9.3% to $289 billion, while traditional media owners will erode by -1.5% to $102 billion.

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3 Big Takeaways Marketers Should Know About Magna's 2024 US Ad Forecast

Political and Olympic advertising have boosted sales

Presidential election and Olympics will bring in $10 billion of incremental ad sales

Saleah Blancaflor

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Presidential election and Olympics will bring in $10 billion of incremental ad sales

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Saleah Blancaflor