Dealmaking and M&A Should Flow In 2025, But That's Not All Down to Trump

Warner Bros. Discovery chief David Zaslav is not the only CEO anticipating that a new president will be "positive" for the industry. With President-elect Donald Trump heading back to the White House, investment, merger, and acquisition activity across media, tech, and agencies is poised for growth, but for reasons beyond Trump himself. While it’s likely that Trump will loosen regulation—especially in areas like artificial intelligence, accelerating investment, and reducing bureaucratic restraints—broader factors like increased consumer confidence, lower interest rates, and, most importantly, pent-up interest from business owners and operators to monetize their assets will spur M&A activity in 2025, sources told ADWEEK. “Most [business owners] have been waiting for two to three years,” said Blake Saunders, managing director at investment bank Methesulah Advisors. Deregulation combined with lower taxes would be more favorable for U.S. businesses which would, in theory, have higher profits and more capital to deploy. Another catalyst for increased deal flow, especially in Big Tech, is that FTC chair Lina Khan, who has been tough on M&A, will likely be replaced much more quickly under Trump (her seat on the commission expired in September). “The antitrust environment has made it harder for some of the biggest acquirers—the big tech companies—to make acquisitions,” said Andrew Lipsman, independent retail media analyst and consultant. While both parties have built antitrust positions into their platforms, “there's probably a sense the range would be loosened on some of that activity [under a Republican administration].” Adtech poised to thrive Adtech M&A has undergone a thawing over the last 24 months, said Conor McKenna, partner at Luma. “We've characterized M&A (and the market broadly) as going through a "Survive, Revive, Thrive" period across '23 to 24 and into '25,” he said. There’s been a tepid return and less strategic transactions. But 25 is poised for a return, “With adtech especially, there are many new entrants that are increasingly seeing advertising as a critical growth lever over many years,” said McKenna. But it’s not just new investment expected to flow. Existing deals will have their fates sealed, and with Trump in charge, that alone could be volatile. “Everything with Trump is personal so I am concerned he has a vendetta against CNN and CBS, who is unhappy with, and will act favorably towards X and Fox News,” said Reed Philips, managing partner at Oaklins + Desilva. “I also believe Elon Musk will have an outsized influence in the next Trump administration around issues related to social media and AI.” Complex retail media deals dislike uncertainty The simple fact that the election is over is likely to have a greater impact on retail media M&A than the winner itself, argued Lipsman, as it clears up some of the uncertainty around the regulatory environment. Continued momentum around retail media could mean more activity like Walmart’s Vizio acquisition or the merger between Kroger and Albertsons. And while those deals haven’t yet been finalized, Lipsman attributes that more to their inherent complexity than election-related uncertainty. A retail media network aiming to capitalize on the industry’s growth might also consider a more modest acquisition—“more of a technology tuck-in than [buying] a major ad server,” Lipsman said. More cautious outlook for agencies While the twin benefits of deregulation and lower corporate taxes could encourage more dealmaking, agencies appear more wary of the uncertainty that exists beyond the election, said Greg Paull, principal at global marketing consultancy R3. “Companies will be dealing with policy uncertainty, potential trade wars, and inflation. So if there's any M&A happening, it won't be for networks and holdcos to get bigger or extend existing capability,” he said. “It will be to build highly strategic businesses that can drive greater operational efficiency and flex in an unpredictable market.” Another potential knock on agency revenue could come from Trump’s tariff policies (if implemented). Any firm whose supply chain involves out-of-country goods will be paying more for those, which could reduce overall ad budgets and bring down ad spend, said Saunders.

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Dealmaking and M&A Should Flow In 2025, But That's Not All Down to Trump

Even with deregulation and lower taxes, businesses need to be wary of a more volatile personality in the White House

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